Those New CNN Generic Ballot Numbers Are Even Worse for Democrats Than They Look

 According to a new CNN Poll done by SSRS, the GOP is in a good position with approximately a week left in the contest for control of the US House of Representatives thanks to an excited Republican base and ongoing concerns about the status of the economy. Republicans edge Democrats 51 percent to 47 percent of likely voters on a generic ballot question asking voters which party's candidate they would support in their own House district, just inside the poll's margin of sampling error.

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Funny thing is, though, that in the 2014 election season, when Republicans were predicted to have a strong wave under a Democratic president, Democrats actually had a lead over Republicans in the final CNN poll conducted prior to the general election, 47 percent to 46 percent. Republicans had a 2.4 percentage point advantage over Democrats in the generic ballot, according to the final RealClearPolitics average. In the end, Republicans outvoted Democrats by 5.7 percentage points in terms of the overall number of House votes cast.

According to the RCP average, Republicans currently have a 2.9-point advantage on the generic ballot.

In other words, Republicans outperformed the final CNN poll by 6.7 percentage points during that cycle. If history is any indication, Republicans will outnumber Democrats in the House votes cast by roughly eleven percentage points. These latest CNN estimates are quite optimistic for Republicans hoping for a sizable House majority, even though I suspect the margin will be quite that huge.